Ritwik Mehta
Thapar Institute of Engineering and Technology, Patiala
“India has moved on from its non-aligned past. India is today an aligned state – but based on issues. India aspires[s] to be a leading power, rather than just a balancing power. India is willing to shoulder greater global responsibilities.”
The last five years of the Modi regime have seen strategic autonomy through strengthened partnerships and emphasizing the nation’s soft power attributes like yoga and spiritualism. Regarding the Indo-US relations, India has ramped up the defense trade and forced interoperability with the US even though Trump was forced on ‘America First’ Outlook. PM Modi might not have uttered the word ‘non-alignment’ in the last six years but has always tried to balance the US and China.
PM Modi might have ignored Pakistan but tried to find a modus vivendi with Islamabad. ‘Look East’ changed to ‘Act East,’ but India is continuing the past engagements in East and South East Asia. For the first time, the invitation from the OIC (Organisation of Islamic Cooperation) has helped India to assert itself in the Middle East like never before. The sorrows have come this time in battalions and the pandemic, with Chinese soldiers fighting with Indian soldiers on LAC, Nepal coming out with cartographic aggression, Iran, Russia, and Bhutan coming close to China and Pakistan opening fire at the LoC.
India – America
After 2014, India has effectively moved from ‘strategic autonomy’ to ‘strategic alignment’. Apart from the double-digit growth in the FDI, the defence trade has also increased from US$ 1 billion in 2008 to more than US$20 billion today![i] America is today India’s second largest arms exporter and the Defence Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI) has moved the “buyer-seller” dynamic to co-production and co-development.
Though India conducts majority of the military exercises with the US, the revival of Cope India exercise between the Indian and the American air forces started under the Modi regime, after a gap of eight years.
India – Sri Lanka
Maldives parliament speaker correctly articulated that. “As India rises and attains the status of super-power, we do not see how India’s actions have ever been a threat to the Maldives or any of its .neighbors.” India has always strived hard to respect its neighbors’ sovereignty and handle the Indian ocean islands’ situation quite differently.
Forgetting those three decades of armed conflict, India has granted Sri Lanka external development assistance for economic recovery, sustainable peace, and long-term development. India’s development assistance provided to the neighbors has always been dependent on demand.
But in recent times, the love and affection of Sri-Lanka towards China is an alarm for India as well. India is concerned about the situation of Indian Origin Tamils (IOTs) living in Sri Lanka and the fishermen issue. These disputes must be solved with more dialogue programs and trust-building initiatives.
To improve our relations with Sri-Lanka, the following measures can be taken:
- Enhancing the housing projects’ effectiveness: The time has come to follow the owner-driven system, which is observed in the Indian Housing Projects (IHP). Even the UN-Habitat believers that this strategy strengthens family relationships and improves construction and beneficiary skills.
- Decentralization required: Though the current situations promote centralization in Sri-Lanka, decentralization will ensure the effective implementation of the resettlement and rehabilitation projects. The government must ensure that there are muscular administrative bodies at the provincial and local levels. This will increase local participation and promote the transparency of the projects.
- Assistance in developing the education and health sector: Civil war in the past few decades in Sri Lanka has deeply impacted its economy, especially in the northern and eastern provinces. India can assist in the development of educational institutes that can further employ the youth. India can promote vocational training, improve English language skills, and nurture small and medium enterprises (SMEs), which can help the people of conflict-affected regions sustain.
- Involving more NGOs/CSOs: Though most of the Indo-Sri Lankan projects are on a government-to-government basis, there is an unidentified space of not utilizing the power of NGOs who have more grasp over ground problems. Such NGOs must be one of the stakeholders while implementing development projects. This step will eliminate corrupt practices and involve public participation.
India – Nepal
Nepal is the only neighbor who has some unique relations with India because of the special provisions like the semi-open nature of border management, article 7 of the 1950 Peace and Friendship Treaty that ensures participation in trade and commerce, equal treatment to both the citizens in terms of residence and ownership of property, etc.
The recent border dispute has somehow complicated India-Nepal relations. There are some anti-India rhetorics in the air that have also arisen out of this dispute. Therefore, the issue must be addressed immediately to move forward for further development projects. India should not consider this issue to be a political one from Nepal’s side and should be solved via high-level political dialogue. Sharing the borders with India and China, Nepal has to decide which neighbor it wants to tie itself up.
Though China can help Nepal develop projects quickly, Nepal has always been close to the SAARC markets, and SAARC can move forward only with Indian lead. Post COVID-19, both countries can focus not only on tourism development but also in healthcare and education. With a strong potential to export health care services, Nepal can set up health care infrastructure.
The development can be done under PPP partnerships in the pharmaceutical industry, ayurvedic medicines, and healthcare educational services too! Despite being rich in water resources, Nepal generates only 674 MW of hydropower (generating 83,000 MW) from the installed capacity of 705 MW[ii].
Keeping in mind that India is fast growing in renewable energy generation, both countries can enter into a joint venture to develop the infrastructure capabilities for producing more hydropower. India can also help Nepal in banking and financial services by assisting in more financial inclusion.
Only 38% of Nepal’s adults have bank accounts, out of which only 6.7% use debit cards[iii]. India can establish large scale banking and financial institutions and insurance companies in Nepal. The efforts should be to comfort Nepal so that they are India.
India – Philippines
When a fire broke out in the BRP Ramon Alcaraz (Philippine’s ship), India provided unwavering support by repairing the ship free of cost at Kochi’s Navy shipyard and took care of the personnel at the hospital. PM Modi’s visit to the Philippines was a historic step (an Indian leader visited the Philippines after 36 years). Both the leaders signed four agreements involving defense cooperation, logistics, agriculture, and MSME enterprises. Today, the relationship is vital because President Rodrigo Duterte has already emphasized the “high time of saying goodbye to Washington.” Now, with India’s relations with the Philippines improving exponentially, it is better in the interest of the US, too, as it will control China’s assertion in the East Asian region.
Seeing India’s growing development, especially in the field of defense, the Philippines will order the purchase of BrahMos land-based supersonic missile system. Therefore, defense procurements from India will undoubtedly play a crucial role in boosting bilateral ties. Both nations can start over with joint bilateral exercises at all levels, especially in counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism preparation domains.
Keeping in mind the Asia-Africa growth corridor initiative, India and Japan can collectively invest in infrastructure development in the Philippines to boost its digital, rail, and road connectivity. Lastly, to encourage people-to-people to connect, more student exchanges need to be promoted and direct flights.
India – Bangladesh
With 90 memorandums of understanding (MoUs) inked in the domain of space, IT, shipping, tourism, India-Bangladesh relationships improved much better with the recent ratification of the Land Boundary Agreement and enclaves in 2015. Since many companies are looking forward to shifting their focus from the Chinese market, the India-Bangladesh partnership can attract these new investments and trades.
Bangladesh Investment Development Authority has already announced the addition of three new services to its one-stop service portal due to which it is expected that Bangladesh will rank much better in the Ease of Doing Business 2021.
Therefore, it is high-time for India to start looking for fresh investment opportunities in the field of consumer products, manufacturing,, healthcare and energy.
India – Bangladesh
Bangladesh can be found at the core of India’s ‘Neighborhood First’ and ‘Act East’ policies, and therefore India’s relationship with Bangladesh was best described by PM Modi as ‘golden era’ (Sonali Adhyay). Out of all the major problems among the two, cross-border migration is at the top. The demographic shift in the bordering states has led to the socio-ethnic tensions resulting in migrants’ influx. The second issue coming into notice is the water dispute. The draft agreement on the Teesta river is still looked into by India, predominantly by the CM of Bengal, as water is the state subject.
India has always acted as the source of imports for Bangladesh, but now Bangladesh is trying to attain self-reliance in many products and widen exports. On the other hand, India is now focusing on “AatmaNirbhar Bharat,” which will surely change the trade relations dynamics.
India – Pakistan
The two of the most belligerent countries possessing nuclear weapons, the only way to rebuild trust is by strengthening cooperation on non-nuclear issues. Both the countries well know the repercussions and immense risks of waging conflict. That’s why both the nations have engaged in organizing a series of confidence-building measures (CBMs) that includes regularly exchanging lists of their nuclear installations. The ongoing arms race is highly counterproductive that might lead to the atomic war’s destructive path, which is not in both countries’ interests. With the air filled with tensions all around, the trust has been completely lost, and no third party can change this reality. India and Pakistan can only “talk the talk” while the need is for the “walk the talk” (implementing the actions discussed).
The 2018 World Bank Report says that India-Pakistan trade can quickly rise from USD 2 billion to USD 37 billion if tariff and non-tariff barriers such as sensitive lists, strict visa policies, strict quality standards, and waiting periods borders are eliminated[iv]. But the decades-old tensions have led to regular setbacks, and thus it isn’t easy to normalize the trade relations.
With this economic cooperation and regional trade, India and Pakistan will be left with an opportunity to divert their enormous defense budget towards much more significant issues like health services, free education, housing for all, and employment, which is the need of the hour in the nations. If the formal channels of trade are opened, smuggling would be reduced, and trade will also be streamlined, increasing revenue through customs duties. It also leaves Pakistan with a perfect option of charging transit fees if it allows access to Indian goods to Afghanistan through Pakistan.
India – Bhutan
Will Bhutan accept China’s ‘package deal’ by giving the Doklam plateau’s control to China, is the biggest question that will govern our relations with Bhutan? Keeping in mind this scenario, India has to pay special attention to strengthening the bilateral bond that could reduce the probability of Bhutan succumbing to Chinese pressure.
Therefore, India should increase the amount of foreign aid to Bhutan that has decreased over the past two years. The high rates of interest on loans by India is also under the lens. India should instead address the grievances of Bhutan over the hydropower projects. Since China is also investing heavily in Bhutan, India should draw Bhutan’s attention towards China’s role in driving other countries into a debt trap. This will bring a feeling of hope that the Indian project model will bring more jobs and inclusiveness.
It seems that Bhutan doesn’t know about the significance of holding the Doklam. The Haa district is rich in pasture land and forests, whose value is immeasurable. India should explain its importance to Bhutan. India should also reach out to all political parties in the Haa district as these parties will indeed be considered while taking any decision regarding the Doklam.
To ensure that the EDI system works well in Jaigaon, India can help Bhutan by providing better internet service providers (ISP) and invest more in the infrastructure. Additional gates can be opened at Changrabandha LCS to facilitate Bhutan’s trade with Bangladesh through India.
A single window system at the Changrabandha and Burimari side will eliminate hard copies of documents.
Both nations can also negotiate a Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) for protecting foreign investments. It will give many opportunities to India for investment in national treatment and access to neutral dispute settlement.
Conclusion
India was the de facto leader of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), has historical and cultural ties with Nepal, colossal influence in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, committed to investing in Afghanistan, and tried to connect with Iran for projects. Nepal, who has turned hostile by adopting a new map and introducing recent border disputes, must resolve through proper dialogue. The concerns of Bangladesh with CAA must also be addressed. India’s proximity to the US might be a mistake as India is placing all its eggs in the US basket. It can also slow down India’s efforts to improve indigenous defense modernization and become self-reliant.
The only fairy tale that makes India happy is that the UN Security Council will be expanded soon, and India will be a permanent member. India joining the NSG is another good news. At the same time, India must strengthen its position in South Asia and SAARC. The policy experts should focus on the question of making India a beacon of light without permanent relations and structures.
[i] India- America FDI – https://m.economictimes.com/news/economy/indicators/us-fdi-to-india-crosses-usd-40-bn-us-india-strategic-and-partnership-forum/articleshow/77029989.cms
[ii] Nepal’s Hydropower – https://www.thethirdpole.net/en/2019/04/09/nepals-hydropower/
[iii] Nepal’s Bank Accounts – https://nepaleconomicforum.org/neftake/driving-the-agenda-of-financial-inclusion-in-nepal/
[iv] https://southasianvoices.org/india-and-pakistans-untapped-trade-potential/
